Page 3 - Energize January 2022

FROM THE EDITOR:

Will 2022 bring an end to

load shedding?
by Roger Lilley, Now Media

n 2021 South Africa experienced its highest amount of load still in operation, having been built between 1961 and 1966 and then
shedding: 1136 hours resulting in a loss of 1773 GWh of recommissioned in 2009 after a “mothballing” period of 16 years.
Ielectricity to the economy. After Komati’s decommissioning, the 2000 MW Hendrina coal-
Load shedding was introduced in 2008 to match load to fired power plant, which was completed in 1976, is planned for
available generating capacity. It has been used almost every closure “before 2025”, Eskom says.
year since then. While there have been a few years without load But despite these closures, the new power stations could provide
shedding, every time it’s been reintroduced the periods have us with an additional capacity of about 3000 MW of generation,
grown longer (i.e., more days with load shedding per year), and/ plus 513 MW of stored energy, to ride out some of the variances in
or the depth of load shedding (i.e., the amount of load taken off sunshine and wind strength.
the network) has increased. In addition to the above, 1996 MW of “emergency” power
The damage done to the economy by years of ever-increasing generating capacity was supposed to become available this year.
periods of power interruptions is enormous. A study by the CSIR The eleven successful bidders in the DMRE’s Risk Mitigation IPP
shows that load shedding reduces economic output by about programme must, according to the rules of the programme “be able
R700-million per load shedding stage per day. In 2019 alone, the to connect power to the grid by June 2022”.
economy lost between R60-billion and R120-billion. We’re not likely to get all of that power though, because
This, combined with the disruptions in industrial production 1200 MW of this “emergency” power was to come from floating,
brought about by the lockdowns in 2020 and 2021 in response to liquid natural gas-powered (LNG-powered) power stations called
the Covid-19 pandemic, resulted in the economy being severely “powerships” owned and operated by Karpowership, which has
curtailed, with unemployment at an all-time high. seen its application for operation in the ports of Coega, Richards
StatsSA reports that the official unemployment rate Bay, and Saldanha, declined by the Department of Environment,
was 34,9% in the third quarter of 2021. The results of the Forestry and Fisheries.
Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the same period Furthermore, a local LNG company is said to be pursuing
show that the number of employed persons decreased by legal action to have the DMRE’s selection of Karpowership
660 000 to 14,3 million. reversed in favour of its own bid, which it claims was cheaper
But there’s hope. This year, new generating capacity could than Karpowership’s and met all the necessary requirements and
mean less load shedding, and combined with a decrease in the approvals. If successful, then perhaps the 1200 MW will come from
number of Covid-related deaths and reduced severity of the current that source.
strain, could mean fewer industrial disruptions, a turnaround in According to the DMRE, the eleven bidders would jointly create
the economy, and potentially more job opportunities. about 4000 “job-years” during construction, and over 12 000 during
According to the Department of Mineral Resources and operations.
Energy’s (DMRE’s) Integrated Resources Plan of 2019 (IPP2019), During 2022, Eskom will undertake major refurbishment and
an additional 1400 MW of solar PV, 1600 MW of wind, 513 MW life-extension work on the Koeberg nuclear power station’s two
of storage and 711 MW of new coal-fired power could become nuclear reactors. As these reactors are shut down sequentially, each
available to the national grid soon. for periods of about five months, load shedding may still plague us
While IPPs will provide the new wind- and solar-derived this year.
electricity, Unit 4 of Eskom’s Kusile power station, which But, as we enter the New Year, our hope is that an additional
was synchronised in December 2021, is already providing an 5000 MW of generating capacity could be available by the end of
additional 800 MW of coal-fired electricity. 2022. This additional capacity would completely remove the need for
The IRP2019 calls for 844 MW of coal-fired power to be load shedding. It is with this hope in mind that we enter what might
removed from the grid this year. This might be fulfilled by the become the last year of load shedding.
closure of the Komati coal-fired power station in September this
year. Komati (960 MW) is one of Eskom’s oldest power stations Send your comments to rogerl@nowmedia.co.za

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