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TECHNICAL

increased between 2010 and 2014, as
projects shifted further offshore into
deeper waters and started using the
latest multi-megawatt (MW) designs.
They then reached a peak before
declining, with the LCOE down 33%
between 2014 and 2019, from $0,183/
kWh to $0,115/kWh. The largest decline
was between 2015 and 2016 – 14% –
and then between 2018 and 2019, by
10%. The factors driving this trend were
identical to those driving installed costs
and capacity factors and were driven by
learning-by doing, supply chain dynamics
and – indirectly – by learning-by-RD&D.
An increase in capacity factors was
driven by technology improvements, Figure 2: Capacity factors (2010 - 2019)
in turbine design and manufacturing
and diversity in the design of turbines
for different operating conditions. This with conventional power sources.
was followed by the development and RD&D efforts have also managed to decrease costs and eventually reverse the additional
adoption of international standards which costs of moving wind farms farther from shore and into deeper waters. This deployment
enabled more competitive global supply brings the additional benefit of farms being sited in locations with stronger and more
chains. Falling LCOEs occurred against consistent wind speed.
the background of a ninefold increase in The global weighted-average offshore wind capacity factor increased by 19% between
installed capacity between 2010 and 2019 2010 and 2019 from 37% to 44%, with the highest global weighted average recorded in
– from 3 GW to 28 GW – and a ninefold 2017, at 45% (Figure 2). In 2019, the range of capacity factors of newly installed projects
increase in electricity generation between was between 30% and 54%, while in 2010 it was between 29% and 41%. This wide range
2010 and 2018, from 7,4 TWh to 68 TWh. reflected a myriad of factors. These included the wind farm’s location (water depth, distance
Over the 2010 to 2019 period, the from the shore) and the wind speed, as well as the technology used (the turbine size, hub
LCOE of offshore wind among frontrunning heights and rotor diameter, etc.). Other factors included the configuration of the wind farm
countries saw a declining trend, with (turbine spacing within clusters along the coast).
2019 seeing Denmark, followed by China, Table 1 shows the changes in capacity factors in countries leading offshore wind
Germany, the UK and Japan, report the deployment between 2010, 2015 and 2019. Major increases in the capacity factor were
lowest LCOEs. Offshore wind projects in reported in the UK between 2010 and 2019, where it rose by 46%. Between 2015 and
the UK, Denmark and Germany do not 2019, the UK saw an increase of 22%. Denmark’s capacity factor surge between 2010
receive any subsidies, so their prices are and 2019 was 12% (comparison with 2015 was not possible due to the lack of reported
or are becoming competitive with other projects). While there were no changes in capacity factors of China and Japan between
conventional power sources. 2010 and 2015, their capacity factors increased by 10% and 7%, respectively, between
2015 and 2019. Germany’s capacity factor decreased by 3% between 2010 and 2019 but
Technology performance and project increased by almost 5% between 2015 and 2019. Germany’s capacity factor was, however,
characteristics
Offshore wind has benefitted from
innovations across the supply chain and
in O&M. Offshore wind turbines have
benefitted from significant technological
improvements over the past ten years,
resulting in larger-capacity turbines,
increased rotor diameters and hub
heights, which increase energy yields and
have decreased installation costs. The
main outcome of these improvements,
however, has been to increase capacity
factors and help drive down the LCOE,
making offshore wind cost-competitive Table 1: Capacity factors in selected countries (2010 - 2019)

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