Page 11 - Energize February 2022

The Royal League
NEWS in ventilation

level), thinner wafers, and more densely packed cells on larger module formats. This
basically offset the secondary glitches in polysilicon volumes (at the tonnage level) and
allowed the 190 GW level to be met by year-end. Feel the future
The other numbers which have to be checked are inventory levels through the
value chain. Here, there was really nothing of major significance. Had there been, Z A bluefin – bionic revolution in material,
pricing would have collapsed, especially at the poly level. There was no pricing design and performance
collapse during the year through the value-chain: there was no major inventory builds This unique bionic fan, inspired by nature,
now comes in the high-performance composite
at any stage. The only surplus was at the nameplate capacity level (wafers, cells, material ZA mid along with the latest ECblue
®
modules); and there is nothing at all new here when it comes the PV industry. By motor technology. The result is a fan that is
incomparably aerodynamic with up to 5%
now, we should all have learned that capacity-adding is a somewhat futile exercise for higher system efficiency and greatly reduced
wafers, cells and modules. acoustics. Fan technology at its finest.
www.ziehl-abegg.co.za
Top 10 consolidation or still an industry welcoming new names at the
gigawatt-scale?
Every year, for the past 15 years that I have been tracking PV manufacturing
activities, the year always starts with proclamations about ‘this year being the year
of consolidation’. It never really happens, and 2021 is a classic example of this. New
entrants being bankrolled to have gigawatt-scale fabs (albeit dominated by Chinese
RMB) still outweigh the companies which enter zombie-mode, get wound up, or are
folded (in stealth mode) into the subsidiary operations of an existing industry player. MATERIAL
Exclusive high-perfomance
One example of this is shown in the figure below. Here I look at one of the most composite material ZA mid ®
basic examples at the consolidation side: module production. Yes, over the past few
years, there has been a larger part of module production (and by default module
supply, as the top module suppliers have less OEM produce than other module DESIGN
Advanced bionic
suppliers) assigned to the ‘top 10’ by production volume. But the growth levels are design with optimised
diffuser effect
far from conclusive, and there are still more than 50 module suppliers which have a
meaningful impact on production/supply volumes.
During 2021, the top 10 module suppliers produced 76% of modules, with a
greater share of module supply due to outsourcing undertaken by most of the c-Si
players in the top 10. PERFORMANCE
The graph above shows that the top 10 module producers accounted for 76% of all New IE5 high-efficiency,
modules produced in the year. However, when looking at the shipment volumes from energy-saving ECblue motor
this top 10 grouping, this percentage figure is a few points higher. This is because most
of the c-Si companies in the top 10 have been relying on some form of third-party
rebranding (from within China itself, across Southeast Asia).
It is only when you add up in-house production levels for the top 50 module
producers that you get close to the 99% figure. This corroborates our narrative for
the past couple of years, that knowing the top 50 is essential, and not just the top 10.
Indeed, if you have been a US-based buyer of modules in 2021, this statement should
ring true. As many of the top 10 deprioritised US shipments (for a host or reasons),
the hole had to be filled by many of the other module suppliers (within the top 50
list). Does this sound like consolidation? Quite the opposite in some ways.
Consolidation today is not so much at the module production/supply level, but for
polysilicon, wafers and cells. This is why consolidation matters. Not as an academic
company number-counting exercise, but from a risk perspective to the global sector.
2021 revealed this in abundance. Last year it was poly; next time around it could be
wafers or cells, especially if there is a hunger for n-type products which can’t be met
as quickly as needed. The global c-Si sector remains under the control of Chinese
manufacturing, and there will inevitably be bumps in the road going forward – some
good and some bad, depending on your focus.
Acknowledgement
This article was first published by PV Tech The Royal League in ventilation, control and drive technology

Send your comments to rogerl@nowmedia.co.za Contact Marius du Plessis, Phone 084 358 5338,
m.duplessis@ziehl-abegg.co.za
https://www.ziehl-abegg.com
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