Page 3 - EngineerIT February 2022 UPDATED

FROM THE EDITOR'S DESK

Predicting 2022

uring a recent podcast, the participants and I (link For another approach, Foreign Affairs now
on www.engineerit.co.za) talked about what asks panels of recognised experts to judge the
Din 2022 will be the most significant events that likelihood of a particular trend that they have
industry should take note of. Automation, collaboration, identified among international issues in order
artificial intelligence and machine learning were the to “crowdsource” predictions. It publishes the
subjects considered the most important. The other distribution of opinions on the back page of each
question was about the economy, and if it will grow issue. Meanwhile, The Economist, in its annual
during 2022. The discussion was less enthusiastic. look ahead to a new year, uses another version
of crowdsourcing, asking influential scholars,
Our discussion reminded me of an article in the weekly commentators and analysts for their views on key
Daily Maverick 168 about predicting the future and how trends for the coming year.
difficult it really is.
But crowdsourcing is not infallible. Stanford
“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future” is the University’s Amy Zegart, in a recent Foreign
famous observation about life attributed to everyone from Affairs article on open intelligence efforts such as
physicist Neils Bohr and Mark Twain to baseball’s king of Bellingcat, cautions that “…a thin line separates the
malapropisms, Yogi Berra. But black swan events can also wisdom of crowds from the danger of mobs. The
crop up and confound us. As those recede into the past herd is often wrong – and when it is, the costs can
and we see them in our rear-view mirror, they eventually be high.”
are judged as the inevitable outcomes of what has gone
before and intriguingly, we begin accepting them as part So as an industry, where does that leave us? There
of the historical landscape. is no sure way of predicting how 2022 will turn
out, but if we look in the rear-view mirror, 2021
The challenge is how to see trends in such a way that we turned out better for industry than predicted. My
can understand the antecedents – before they are seen contention is that we must build on the positives of
as inevitable. This, then, is the political and economic 2021 and make them work better for this year.
analogue of what psychologist William James famously
described as the “booming, buzzing confusion” of We have some great articles in this edition. Enjoy
sensations that assail a newborn child. reading them and share them with your colleagues
and friends. Positivity is infectious.
Clem Sunter, the South African scenario planner, explained
his methodology for developing scenarios about the future Best wishes for a great 2022 and beyond.
as follows: his team used a roster of triggers and red flags
to help weigh alternatives and provide those “heads ups” Hans van de Groenendaal
about problematic developments and policy choices. Editor
hansv@nowmedia.co.za
When asked what the most significant red flags were, 082 781 4631
he said to check the interest rates on a government’s
long-term bonds: are they going up or down? The higher Daily Maverick 168 newspaper is available for
the interest rates demanded and paid, the more it is a R25 at Pick n Pay, Exclusive Books and airport
predictor for future instability. bookstores.

EngineerIT | February 2022 | 1