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TECHNOLOGY

But now the fifth TEP, with the The second lesson is that the actual use of 3G lagged deployment by five years, and that
introduction of 5G, changes new tools we should get over it (the lag period). The third is that we completely under-estimated its
to that of AI, IoT, quantum computing, opportunity. Forecasts in 2003 were completely under-estimated by a factor of 10x - 100x
genomics, cybernetics, neurotech and for 2019 results.
nanotech. It changes new organisations The former Telkom Group chief operating officer stated the anticipated use-cases for
to openness, distributed intelligence, 5G, by listing opportunities such as enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB), which include
intelligence productionisation, co- enhanced video (e.g. multiple HD streams), M-commerce and fixed wireless access. He
dependence and moving from a self- also listed ultra-reliable low latency communications (URLLC), which includes VR/AR,
centred way of thinking about the world tactile internet (remote surgery, remote remediation, etc.), co-operative and autonomous
to a socially-centred way. It also changes driving, robotic control and edge computing. Finally, he listed massive machine type
new infrastructures to universal communications (mMTC), such as IoT and possible IoT applications.
connectivity, digital identities, The real issue, according to Prof Armstrong, is that to connect South
universal transactional 5G OpenRAN Africa and Africa, you cannot do it without 5G or 4G, but 5G is what creates
networks and “intelligence offers the tools and the fibre-like experience. The data shows that the total fixed services
infrastructures”. the fundamental building opportunity in South Africa for fixed wireless access could reach 8,5
“So when we think blocks to make the fifth million homes, but in 2023 it is predicted that the country will have 18
of 5G, particularly Open million homes. So now it is believed that 5G is an important part of the
5G, it is a key enabler of TEP a reality solution to properly connect this “other” 50%.
this openness and universal “5G OpenRAN opens new models, it allows a further substantial
connectivity – and that is where reduction of unit cost and can play a huge role in access divide. In terms of
5G OpenRAN fits into the story,” Prof usage, it makes these new applications viable, so that it can play a fundamental role in
Armstrong said. bridging this digital divide,” Prof Armstrong answered on the potential of 5G in bridging
There are three critical factors the digital divide.
that drive each TEP, which are clearly He concluded his presentation by asking a question we need to ask ourselves: “Where
perceived and rapidly falling relative am I in this? Are we in a state of denial about the potential for this TEP and our role in it,
cost of these clusters of innovations, do we understand the opportunity? Do we understand the transformative power of this
almost unlimited availability of supply cluster of new technologies, the new infrastructures we will create and new modes of
over long periods, and clear potential organisation to be able to grasp that and turn it into social and business outcomes that
for the use or incorporation of new key are beneficial, and indeed personal outcomes?” n
factors in many products and processes
throughout the economic system
Prof Armstrong compared OpenRAN
5G with these critical factors, stating
that 5G allows for 10x-100x increase in
capability, which in turn creates falling
device and system costs with regards to
the first factor. The second factor, with
5G, allows the spectrum to now become
more available, with rapidly increasing
coverage. The third factor, with 5G use
cases, offers new applications, although
ubiquitous hi-quality connectivity is yet
to find its full expression.
“So what 5G OpenRAN offers are
the tools and the fundamental building
blocks to make this fifth TEP a reality,”
he said.
Prof Brian Armstrong was the keynote speaker at the NEC XON 5G OpenRAN event on
The opportunity for 5G July 7 and spoke in his first public presentation since COVID about the opportunity of
Prof Armstrong started by listing three Open 5G and how technology changes the world.
lessons we have learned from 3G. As a business scientist, lecturer and researcher at the WITS Business School, Prof.
The first lesson is that it was only five Armstrong said he does not try to make lavish predictions about the future. “What
years after the deployment of 3G that we try to do in business science is to understand how the world has worked, how it
we found the use-case for it (3G was does work, and on the models that we develop in that, the predictive power of those
launched between 2002 and 2005, and models allows us to think about the now and the future and how we respond to it.”
the iPhone was first introduced in 2007).

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