Page 33 - Fourways Gardens April 2021

Property

The Lightstone forecast for 2021, in the graphic below, is based on 3 scenarios:
House price inflation High price inflation moves In Scenario 3 new
could drop to 2.1% in sympathy with inflation lockdown life increases
from its current 3%. This under this scenario, where the demand for residential
scenario anticipates the the economy recovers to housing, particularly
number of transactions pre COVID-19 levels over luxury housing and house
decreasing as the pent- the next couple of years price inflation could rise
up demand works its way out of the market. with little economic growth over the long to 5.2%.
Furthermore, the negative economic growth term.
has not yet filtered through to house prices.

In the graphic below, sectional title properties properties peak at 2% and Luxury properties “2020 has thrown some interesting
perform the least well in terms of Scenarios 2 at nearer 1% - but in Scenarios 2 and 3, it’s curve balls our way as unprecedented
and 3 (between 3.1 and 3.5% respectively), anticipated that both perform strongly, with circumstances have kept us analysts
while the Mid segment – which is more Luxury at 6% in Scenario 3, and High Value at on our toes. In saying this however, it
dependent on GDP growth and so more 4.5% has been interesting to see how a year
susceptible to growth or crashes – performs marred with such negative sentiments
worst in Scenario 1 at just around 0.5%. The freehold forecasts tend to track inflation, can open new doors for the housing
while sectional title properties are influenced market,” concludes de Kock.
In Scenario 1, it’s forecast that High Value by other factors.

Fourways Gardens • 31 • April 2021