Page 29 - Energize December 2022
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TECHNICAL


        Towards a 100% renewable


        energy future





                                                 Information from Wartsila




             he global energy market is      past 20 years, the cost per kW of wind power plants has decreased by 40% and solar
             constantly evolving. Current    has dropped by 90%. Currently, wind and solar attribute to approximately 1100 GW of
        Tmarket trends show the energy       electricity globally which forecasts indicate will rise to 2000 GW in 2024. Similar trends in
        landscape is in transition towards   global energy storage deployments show an increase from 139 MW in 2012 to 1173 MW
        more flexible energy systems with a   in 2017.
        rapidly increasing share of renewable   Annual global installations of renewable energy capacity are also steadily increasing.
        energy, declining inflexible baseload   In 2017, 175 GW of new renewable energy was installed globally, the highest year on
        generation and wider applications of   record.
        storage technology. The declining costs   This includes 98 GW of solar PV which is expected to rise to 100 GW in 2018. This
        of renewables have begun to reduce new   industry transformation and global advancement towards renewable generation has made
        investments into coal and other inflexible   it more difficult for existing inflexible baseload power plants, such as coal and nuclear,
        baseload technologies; a transition which   to efficiently provide solutions for customers. Since investments define and dictates a
        will eventually cause renewables to   company’s strategy for the future, the existing business model is shifting from the era where
        become the new baseload. In 2017 itself,   centralised large units benefited from economies of scale. Moreover, as investments in
        14% of electricity generation worldwide   new intermittent energy technology grow and prices for renewables reach a tipping point,
        was attributed to wind and solar.    utilities are starting to change their portfolios to involve more renewables and flexible
                                             generation. Flexible solutions like engine power plants and energy storage are the key to
        The renewable revolution             providing the needed reliability and ensuring the affordable cost of power systems.
        In recent years, market trends show a   Today, large markets such as the US, the UK and specific regions in Central Europe
        steady decline in the price of renewable   exist for stand-alone energy storage due to high fuel costs, and the levelised cost of
        energy in the global power system.   electricity (LCOE) of renewables set to fall below those of conventional coal and gas by
        Investments into new inflexible baseload   2040. This will lead to a tipping point, where new build renewables will become cheaper
        generation are also on the decline and   than new build combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) or coal baseload plants and cause
        price performance data shows the     increasing focus on new investments into renewables. This tipping point will arrive at
        cost competitiveness of wind and solar   different times in different countries – in China, onshore wind is now beginning to gain
        is rapidly increasing as compared to   a competitive advantage over coal however in the US, the best-in-class on shore wind is
        traditional thermal generation. In the   already cheaper than the new build CCGT.




























        Figure 1: Wind and solar cumulative installed capacity is expected to increase from 14% in 2017 to 48% in 2040, enabled by engines and storage.



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