Page 41 - Energize March 2022

VIEWS AND OPINION

Renewables-dominated power system the most

cost-competitive for SA

BY KAREN POTGIETER, SOLARAFRICA

s the world moves towards reducing global carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions to
net-zero by 2050, recent research has revealed that a local power system that is
Adominated by renewables – most notably solar – will be the most cost-competitive
energy solution for South Africa.
With a growing number of countries announcing pledges to achieve net-zero emissions
over the coming decades and limit the increase in average global temperatures to 1,5°C, a
recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for
the Global Energy Sector, says this will hinge on an unprecedented clean technology push to
2030 and beyond.
Outlining a viable pathway to building a global energy sector with net-zero emissions by
2050, the IEA states that the ‘immediate and massive’ deployment of all available clean and
efficient energy technologies is the key to reducing emissions from electricity supply.
The pathway calls for annual additions of solar photovoltaic (solar PV) installations to
reach 630 GW by 2030 – the equivalent of installing the world’s currently largest solar park
roughly every day.
Should this rate of solar PV installation be achieved, almost 90% of electricity generation
will come from renewable sources by 2030, with solar becoming the world’s single largest Karen Potgieter
source of total energy supply.
renewable energy capacity; at least 4 GW
A R3-trillion price tag to net zero of renewables will need to be installed
While a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change every year – roughly ten times the current
(UNFCCC), and to the Paris Agreement, South Africa has yet to formally commit to the global pace of new builds,” the report reads.
net-zero target. The NBI has indicated that South
However, it is expected to officially agree to the target when tabling its revised Nationally Africa’s private sector would support
Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in November 2021. a level of ambition that would see the
According to research by the National Business Initiative (NBI), transitioning South Africa’s country committing to a range of CO 2
power system to net zero would require the deployment of 150 GW of wind and solar capacity emissions of between 350 and 370 Mt by
by 2050 – almost four times the current total capacity of South Africa’s coal power plants. 2030.
This would require an investment of some R3-trillion within the next 30 years, requiring
significant expansion and upgrade to the transmission and distribution infrastructure, the Funding the transition
NBI outlines in its report Decarbonising South Africa’s Power System. While a future national energy system
Notwithstanding this rather jarring figure, experts have asserted that a local power driven primarily by renewables may be
system dominated by renewables will be the most cost-competitive energy solution for South Africa’s most cost-competitive
South Africa by 2050. energy solution, without careful planning
South Africa’s complementary wind and solar resources are among the best renewable and new investments, this transition may
energy resources in the world, available on vast amounts of undeveloped land. put employment and value chains at risk
In addition, the transformation of South Africa’s power system from a primarily in the short-term and exacerbate current
coal-based energy system could result in net-positive job creation, should South Africa socioeconomic challenges.
successfully localise elements of the renewable energy value chain and effectively reskill the South Africa is highly vulnerable to
workforce, states the report. the impacts of climate change and will
“By leveraging its world-class renewable energy sources, South Africa can fully need significant international support to
decarbonise its power sector, while unlocking the opportunity to stimulate economic growth transition its economy and to decarbonise,
and job creation,” asserts the NBI. the NBI asserts in its report.
Despite South Africa’s abundant wind and solar energy resources, less than 6% of Access to international green finance
electricity is currently generated by renewables, with over 80% of local power generated by is essential in funding this journey and
coal-powered plants. ensuring the competitive cost of capital,
“To reach net zero by 2050, South Africa would need to speed up the deployment of with the IEA indicating that government

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