Page 39 - Energize July 2022

VIEWS AND OPINION

A national priority project to end load shedding fast

by Chris Yelland, EE Business Intelligence

outh Africa has been experiencing
load shedding intermittently for
S15 years since 2007. The impact of
load shedding on the economy of South
Africa has been devastating, contributing
to low GDP growth and increasing levels of
unemployment and poverty.

This article proposes short- and medium-
term solutions to South Africa’s electricity
challenges. For longer-term solutions
addressing South Africa’s electricity
future, see here.

In recent years, the hours and energy lost to
load shedding has been steadily increasing,
whilst the EAF (energy availability factor) of
Eskom’s generation fleet has been steadily
worsening (Figures 1 and 2 below). The
trend continues in 2022.
A recent study report by Meridian
Economics, published on 13 June 2022,
indicates that in the absence of further Figure 1: Eskom EAF for 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 to date. (Source: Data: Eskom;
Graph: EE Business Intelligence)
urgent and drastic interventions, load
shedding in 2023 may see up to a 4-fold hear about how we as a country are going to end load shedding, and fast.
increase compared to 2021; up to 5-fold Eskom has acknowledged that it is unable to deal with this matter alone through increased
in 2024, 4-fold in 2025 and up to 10-fold maintenance or delaying the decommissioning of old, poorly performing coal-fired power
in 2026, all when compared to 2021, the stations.
worst loadshedding year on record so far. However, feelings of helplessness in the face of load shedding are completely unwarranted.
There are indeed solutions available to end load shedding in two years from green light,
The time for action is now
Load shedding in South Africa has become
a national crisis, requiring a properly
coordinated “Marshall Plan”, pulling in all
affected stakeholders to become part of the
solution.
Failure to attend to the load shedding
crisis could turn this national emergency
into a national disaster – in the worst-case
scenario: a partial or a national blackout
with all its consequences, including social
unrest.
Government and Eskom have had more
than a decade to talk though and address
the challenges, but the hard statistics show
that the situation is not improving.
The public and customers of electricity
are tired of hearing about why we are
having load shedding, and instead want to Figure 2: Hours of loadshedding and energy shed from 2014 to 2021 (Source: CSIR Energy Centre)

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