Page 40 - Energize July 2022

VIEWS AND OPINION

and this document proposes a national government of South Africa.
priority project at relatively low cost to In this project, under McRae’s stewardship, the word “problem” by Eskom people was not
Eskom, municipalities and the fiscus to permitted or tolerated by the project team. Only potential solutions were allowed to be heard.
achieve this. With the full support of government, municipalities and electricity customers, the
“Electricity for All” initiative captured the imagination of the South African nation.
The goal The campaign went on to become the biggest electrification project in the world at the
The goal of the national priority project to time, earning international acclaim for its vision and success.
end loadshedding would be for different Today, South Africa and Eskom are faced with different challenges, which, with the
customer categories to work together to necessary commitment and determination, are equally solvable.
connect an additional 10 GW of new wind
and solar PV power generation capacity, Leadership challenges
and 5 GW of new battery storage capacity, It is critical that the proposed national priority project should have the committed leadership
to the grid in two years. of government at the highest level, supported by an experienced project execution executive
This additional 10 GW of new wind and team.
solar PV power generation capacity, and 5 One possibility is for the proposed national priority project to be led and driven by Eskom,
GW of new energy storage capacity, would who are at the proverbial coalface of electricity supply in South Africa, and have the necessary
be over and above (and does not replace) specialised experience, resources and structure to put the project into effect, as it did with the
the existing and planned RMIPPP, REIPPP “Electricity for All” campaign.
and IRP 2019 public procurements being Another option is that it should be led and driven by Operation Vulindlela, directly from
facilitated by the DMRE and its IPP Office, the office of the Presidency, as that is a body, already established and seized with the task of
which cannot deliver new power in the next unlocking bottlenecks to economic growth and investment in South Africa, which achieving a
two years. measure of success with this.
Nor does the proposed national priority A preferred third option may be for the project to be led and driven by a newly formed
project replace, rule out or obviate the National Command Council comprising appointed leaders and experts from government,
need for other important levers such Eskom, industry and civil society, acting in their individual professional capacities. Until the
as demand side management, demand national priority project has been resolved, the National Command Council should be given
response, demand market participation, the necessary emergency powers to gazette new regulations, amend or suspend existing
domestic time-of-use tariffs and energy regulations, remove bottlenecks, and coordinate and execute the project.
efficiency.
Detailed modelling shows conclusively Suspending the prescriptive aspects of IRP 2019 and associated regulations
that if executed properly and on time, the There is a broad consensus that the current IRP 2019 has significant holes in the plan in the
proposed national priority project will stop years up to 2030, as a result of:
load shedding in its tracks and provide • unrealistic Eskom energy availability factor (EAF) assumptions
adequate generation capacity reserve that • unrealistic and unrealised economic growth and electricity demand forecasts
will serve South Africa in good stead. • changes in the energy intensity of the South African economy
Although further work is needed in • changes in technology prices, particularly wind, solar PV and battery storage
refining both the overall quantum and the • changes in gas and coal prices due to the global political and economic environment
breakdown of the national priority plan • elasticity of demand in the face of increasing electricity prices
into its constituent parts, and its timing, • delays in rollout of new units at Medupi and Kusile
from capacity allocations to the different • delays in the rollout of the Risk Mitigation IPP Procurement programme (RMIPPP)
customer categories shown in table 1, it is • delays in the rollout of the renewable energy IPP Procurement programme (REIPPP)
suggested that the plan is most definitely
achievable. TOTAL 15 GW
Domestic sector 1,5 GW
Example of a previous national Commercial and industrial sectors 2,5 GW
priority project in the electricity Agricultural sector 1,5 GW
sector Mining sector 3,5 GW
In the 1990s, the Eskom CEO at the time, South 32 1,5 GW
Dr Ian McRae, conceived and initiated a
national priority project under the slogan: Sasol 1 GW
“Electricity for All”. Arcelor Mittal 1 GW
The project received the overwhelming Eskom 1,5 GW
support of the Eskom chairman, board Municipal metros 1 GW
and workforce, as well as the committed Table 1: Suggested sectorial breakdown of capacity allocations to different
support of the new, democratically elected customer categories

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