Page 36 - Energize August 2021

VIEWS AND OPINION

Finding pathways to a decarbonised

power sector in South Africa

Information from NBI

A power sector decarbonisation report by the National Business

Initiative (NBI), Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) and Boston
Consulting Group (BCG) shows that it is possible for South Africa to
decarbonise its economy by around 2050, and looks at ways to ensure

a just transition that is economically, socially and environmentally
sustainable and which leaves no one behind.

s a country with one of the most Climate change is undoubtedly one of the defining challenges of today; the world is facing
emissions-intensive power sectors increasing risks to natural and human systems, with the consequences of the growing frequency
Ain the world, and a nation that is of extreme weather events already apparent. South Africa is one of the countries at greatest risk.
particularly vulnerable to the impacts of Rising temperatures, increased aridity and rainfall variability will have significant consequences,
climate change, South Africa understands not only for the country’s agricultural sector and its biodiversity, but also the health and wellbeing
the need to transition its economy and to of its people.
decarbonise, as well as to build resilience to The case for change is undeniable and is additionally driven by trade risk as South Africa’s
the impacts of climate change. The central key trading partners implement their low-carbon commitments, with some, like the European
finding of a new report, Decarbonising South Union, planning to introduce carbon border tax adjustments. This will create mounting
Africa’s Power System, being released today pressure for South Africa, especially in key economic export sectors like mining, manufacturing
by the National Business Initiative (NBI), and agriculture.
together with Business Unity South Africa
(BUSA) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG), A balancing act: mitigating risks to rapidly move to a resilient, renewable future
is that South Africa can fully decarbonise its “South Africa has a unique balancing act that it needs to navigate: the country must carefully
power sector. juggle the urgent need for economic transition and growth with its reality of a high rate of
The power sector decarbonisation report inequality, poverty and unemployment and its dependence on a fossil fuel-based energy
is part of the NBI’s Just Transition and Climate system in order to effectively mitigate risks and make a just transition to a low-carbon future
Pathways project and is the first in a series that is resilient and inclusive,” says Lucas Chaumontet, the managing director and partner at
of reports on decarbonisation pathways for BCG, Johannesburg.
sectors of the South African economy.
The NBI, in partnership with BUSA and Making this transition, particularly in the predominantly coal-based electricity sector, will be
BCG, have worked with leaders in business, complex. The report identified ten key findings around the future of the power sector, and
government, civil society, and academia to decarbonisation, in South Africa:
identify decarbonisation pathways for key 1. By leveraging its world class renewable energy sources, South Africa can fully decarbonise its
economic sectors aligned to an aspiration power sector, while unlocking the opportunity to stimulate economic growth and job creation.
of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. 2. South Africa’s complementary wind and solar resources are among the best renewable energy
The report also considers how to achieve resources in the world, available on vast amounts of unused land.
a just transition that is economically and 3. By 2050, a renewables-dominated power system would be the most cost-competitive system
environmentally sustainable and which for South Africa.
leaves no one behind. 4. Transitioning South Africa’s power system to net-zero would require the deployment of
“Results from the work to date show approximately 150 GW wind and solar capacity by 2050 – this is almost four times the total
that this can be done – but that efforts must capacity of South Africa’s coal power plants today – and an investment of about R3-trillion
begin now. Timing is of the essence and within the next 30 years, requiring significant expansion and upgrade to the transmission and
there is no time like the present to create distribution infrastructure.
the regulatory and policy environment to 5. To reach net-zero by 2050, South Africa would need to speed up deployment of renewable
support transitioning the economy. This is energy capacity; at least 4 GW of renewables will need to be installed every year – roughly ten
why business has committed to supporting times the current pace of new-build.
South Africa’s commitment to find ways to 6. Natural gas as a transition fuel will be critical in this journey – initially growing as an enabler
transition to a net-zero emission economy by to the integration of wind and solar into the power system at scale, gas will then be gradually
2050,” says Joanne Yawitch, NBI CEO. replaced by other technologies to reach net-zero emissions.

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