Page 50 - Energize November 2021

VIEWS AND OPINION

Expansion of wind and solar power

too slow to stop climate change

Information from Chalmers University of Technology

he production of renewable energy is increasing every year. But after analysing
the growth rates of wind and solar power in 60 countries, researchers at Chalmers
TUniversity of Technology, Lund University in Sweden and Central European University
in Vienna, Austria, conclude that virtually no country is moving sufficiently fast to avoid
global warming of 1,5°C or even 2°C.
“This is the first time that the maximum growth rate in individual countries has been
accurately measured, and it shows the enormous scale of the challenge of replacing
traditional energy sources with renewables, as well as the need to explore diverse
technologies and scenarios,” says Jessica Jewell, Associate Professor of Energy Transitions at Jessica Jewell
Chalmers University of Technology.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified energy scenarios “Among larger countries, only Germany
compatible with keeping global warming under 1,5°C or 2°C. Most of these scenarios has so far been able to sustain growth of
envision very rapid growth of renewable electricity: on average about 1,4% of total global onshore wind power comparable with
electricity supply per year for both wind and solar power, and over 3% in more ambitious median climate stabilisation scenarios. In
solar power scenarios. But the researchers’ new findings show that achieving such rapid other words, to stay on track for climate
growth has so far only been possible for a few countries. targets, the whole world should build
Measuring and predicting the growth of new technologies like renewable energy wind power as fast as Germany built
is difficult, as they do not grow linearly. Instead, the growth usually follows a so-called recently. There may be limits to how fast
“S-curve” – at first it accelerates exponentially, then stabilises to linear growth for a while, wind and solar can be expanded and
and in the end slows down as the market becomes saturated. thus we should systematically analyse
“We came up with a new method: to use mathematical models to measure the slope of the feasibility of other climate solutions,
the S-curve, that is, the maximum growth rate achieved at its steepest point. It is an entirely especially for fast growing Asian
novel way to look at the growth of new technologies,” says Jessica Jewell. economies such as India and China,” says
When analysing the 60 largest countries, the researchers found that the maximum Aleh Cherp, professor of Environmental
growth rate for onshore wind power is on average 0,8% of the total electricity supply per Sciences and Policy at Central European
year and 0,6% on average for solar – much lower than in the IPCC scenarios. Sustained University and Lund University.
growth faster than 2% per year for wind and 1,5% for solar has only occurred in smaller
countries such as Portugal, Ireland and Chile. Contact Jessica Jewell,
“It is likely that faster growth is easier to achieve in smaller more homogenous countries, Chalmers University of Technology,
rather than in large diverse systems,” says Jessica Jewell. jewell@chalmers.se

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