Page 45 - Energize January 2022

VIEWS AND OPINION

Importing PV and wind systems same process could be used. If transition is the important thing and polycrystalline PV
effectively amounts to importing energy. was acceptable in the past, why not take a step back and establish a local industry based
When the unit price of electricity on this technology? The cost will be higher than the imported advanced product, but this
is dominated by the capital cost of is offset by the creation of permanent jobs here and could be subsidised to soften the
an imported item, payment for that price difference.
electricity leaves the country, and Despite impressive plans, there has been a total failure to establish a wind turbine
the electricity is effectively imported, industry in this country, and in light of a recent announcement by a Far Eastern country
irrespective of the quality of the that they aim to dominate the wind market in Africa in the future, the prospects for
renewable resources. establishment of a local wind turbine industry are low.
What then are the possibilities of This raises the question of why wind power dominates the IRP. There is no prospect
establishing or re-establishing a RE of a local wind industry, and the performance of the wind farms installed to date does
industry in South Africa, and where should not inspire confidence, while other scenarios, such as that of BCG/NBI, show that a
the focus be? dominance of solar PV gives the best option. South Africa has one of the best solar
Ironically, South Africa does have an resources in the world, and the availability and dropping price of bulk storage should
indigenous solar PV product, a thin film make PV a prime choice for utility power. Besides which, Occam’s razor, which states that
solar panel developed in this country when faced with several choices, the simplest is usually the best, is still valid. A quick look
and produced in a fabrication plant at the wind and solar production curves shows that designing around solar and storage
owned by PTiP in Stellenbosch. Regarded would be by far the easiest.
as a breakthrough at the time of its Of further concern for sovereignty is the non-electrical energy market, dominated in this
development ten years ago, the product country by oil and gas, most of which is imported. The current frantic development of the
has had difficulty in getting to market. The “green” hydrogen sector can be seen as an attempt by countries currently importing oil and
irony is that it seems that the company gas to replace their liquid and gaseous fuel imports with locally produced “green” hydrogen
is now not selling solar panels, but the and its derivatives. We may well eventually produce “green” hydrogen from surplus
intellectual property and industrial process renewable energy and regard it as a local source of energy, but if the wind turbines and solar
required to produce them. The “reset” PV systems are 100% imported, so also is the “green” hydrogen.
could maybe get this back on the road to The “new normal” should provide an opportunity to create local jobs, not jobs
production in future. elsewhere. The drive to accelerate the energy transition should create sustainable local
Solar PV manufacture in SA is limited industries even if the cost appears to be higher. There is an opportunity here to look at local
to assembly of imported components, interests and to follow other countries in establishing sustainable local RE industries that
and while there was talk of establishing keep control of the supply and cost of energy within the country.
a silicon ingot casting and wafer
manufacturing facility some years ago, There are two conflicting issues at play: The need to retain energy sovereignty, and the
nothing seems to have come of it. The desire to achieve the lowest cost. Moving to a greener economy will be more expensive in
PV market consists of two sectors: Utility the short term, and the objective should be to achieve a balance between the two.
and private usage (rooftop). The utility • Lowest direct price will mean imports and loss of local industry. The real cost of imports
market is intermittent and dependant needs to be considered.
on government programmes, whereas • Energy sovereignty and local manufacture will mean higher prices and possibly slow down
the rooftop sector provides a continuous the transition.
demand driven by the market and could
possibly sustain a local industry. The Let us end by going back to the issue of slogans becoming goals. The problems with setting
increase in the use of large-scale PV goals for the future by date and quantity, e.g., “net zero by 2050”, is that they become cast
systems by mines and industry could boost in stone, and eventually become impossible to change. Situations change and goals should
this market as well. change with them, otherwise you have a situation where an extreme goal is being pursued
PV technology has become very for its own sake, rather than because of any benefit that accrues.
advanced, and monocrystalline panels Goals, particularly relating to energy, should be flexible enough to accommodate
dominate the market. Previously, changes in situations. This is illustrated by the wise move at COP26, where the developing
smaller manufacturers made countries forced a change in the objectives from a “phase-out of coal” to “a phase-down of
polycrystalline silicon onsite by casting coal”, a much more practical goal.
ingots using waste from the electronics One thing is certain, whatever the economic rebuild is called, it will not be cheap. If we
industry and used these to manufacture wish to become “greener” and “cleaner” we have to accept that there will be a cost.
wafers. It now appears possible to cast
monocrystalline ingots, and if so, the Send your comments to rogerl@nowmedia.co.za

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