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VIEWS AND OPINION

The other game changers: Rooftop solar,

EVs, storage

by Fereidoon Sioshansi PhD, Menlo Energy Economics

Watch developments on the demand side of the electricity value chain

alk about game changers and most exceeds 15 800 MW and with the system
people will mention the rapid rise costs falling, six million is projected by
Tof renewables. No question about 2030. Currently some 100 000 homes have
it. But there are other less subtle ones storage batteries and there are few electric
with equally important implications. This vehicles in a country with great distances
editor is not alone in fantasizing about to travel. But check the numbers again in
a future where many buildings, large a few years.
and small, will be self-generating most, A recent report by the Australian
if not all, of their electricity needs, and Energy Market Operator (AEMO) expects
storing – or potentially sharing it – with nearly five times the distributed PV
their peers. capacity, plus substantial growth in
The numbers speak for themselves: distributed storage. It says roughly 30%
Germany has over 1,5 million solar roofs, of detached homes in the interconnected
there are more than 1,3 million solar eastern part of the country (NEM) have
roofs in California and – astonishingly for rooftop PV, and their collective 15 GW
a country with a population of under 25 installed capacity meets their owners’ Fereidoon Sioshansi
million – over 3 million in Australia. In energy needs while exporting the surplus
Australia’s case, the projection is that the into the grid. is not. And while Australia may be an
number will double by 2030. By 2032, over half of the homes will do exceptional case, similar trends are likely
Elsewhere the numbers are rising so, rising to 65% with 69 GW capacity by to emerge nearly everywhere over time.
nearly everywhere, given the falling cost 2050, with most systems complemented
of solar PV systems – which make it a by battery energy storage. Their 90 TWh Acknowledgement
compelling proposition in sunny areas of electricity will then meet nearly 20% of This article was first published in the
with an abundance of detached homes the network’s total demand. January 2022 edition of EEnergy Informer
and high retail tariffs. Warehouse and It sounds like science fiction, but it and is republished here with permission.
commercial buildings are no exception.
In places with a high penetration of
solar roofs, distributed solar generation
can meet a significant amount of the
demand during the sunny hours of the day.
In California, it is around 25%, in South
Australia it already meets total demand
on the network on many sunny weekends.
And this is only the beginning.

Is Australia an exception or the new
normal?
In 2001, Australia had three rooftop solar
installations. It now has over 3 three
million. According to the Clean Energy
Regulator, the current solar output is 18,9
TWh/year or 7% of all power produced in
Australia, which is 265 TWh.
Australia’s rooftop solar capacity now

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