Page 24 - EngineerIT Nov-Dec 2025

ENERGY

“We should aim for diversity, A lesson in rational optimism The choice ahead
resilience and cost discipline – not “Electricity isn’t magic; it’s pretty South Africa’s grid doesn’t need
doctrine. Coal retains a limited straightforward if you look at the big miracles but discipline. The
legacy role; nuclear may return in picture,” says De Ruyter technologies exist, the investors are
small doses once finances allow, but waiting, and the blueprint is drawn.
renewables and storage form the Perhaps that’s the simplest energy What remains is to act at the speed
spine of any credible future mix.” policy ever written. Logically, of reason.
renewables are cheaper, faster and
The physics of change water-light; storage is following “Let’s make the rationally objective
“When a technology reaches end- the same curve solar once did. decision that gives us the lowest-cost
of-life, there’s always resistance,” he Markets, when trusted, tend to reward electricity going forward,” De Ruyter
says. “Consider a carriage driver’s efficiency. concludes.
dilemma when the first internal
combustion engines arrived. He may De Ruyter’s optimism is based on the Borrowed light bought us time. What
have thought that making a better alignment of physics and economics. we do with that time will decide
carriage was the answer. But no The old clichéd light at the end of the whether the next silence feels like
matter how you look at it, carriages tunnel is still available if we learn to relief – or the edge of another
were set to become obsolete. generate it ourselves. collapse.

“Ultimately, we may complain
BUILD-TIME REALITY CHECK
about new innovations, but we
have to make them work for us Technology Typical build time Financing outlook Cost trend
before we make ourselves obsolete.
Solar PV ~2 years Strong private ↓ Rapidly falling
Technological transitions don’t wait
(utility scale) appetite
for ideological approval. They happen
when cost curves and performance Wind power ~3 years High interest, steady ↓ Falling
cross. South Africa’s crossing point is
Nuclear new build ~15 years (if lucky) Financing difficult ↔ High capex
already behind us.”
New coal 10–12 years Low / insurers ↑ Rising
(minimum) reluctant

24 | EngineerIT November/December 2025
24 | EngineerIT November/December 2025