Page 19 - IFV Issue 1 January 2026

Estate News

shedding has many breathing easier. The physics of change renewables are cheaper, faster and
Still, the arithmetic behind the “When a technology reaches end-of- water-light; storage is following the
calm may tell a different story. With life, there’s always resistance,” he says. same curve solar once did. Markets,
approximately R25 billion in diesel “Consider a carriage driver’s dilemma when trusted, tend to reward efficiency.
burned in 2024 to fill the gaps, the when the first internal combustion De Ruyter’s optimism is based on the
question is whether this is sustainable, engines arrived. He may have thought alignment of physics and economics.
given that most of the coal fleet is that making a better carriage was the The old clichéd light at the end of the
around forty-five years old and poorly answer. But no matter how you look at it, tunnel is still available if we learn to
maintained. carriages were set to become obsolete. generate it ourselves.
De Ruyter surmises there could “Ultimately, we may complain
be a possible loadshedding relapse about new innovations, but we have The choice ahead
between 2028 and 2032, depending to make them work for us before we South Africa’s grid doesn’t need
on how quickly replacement capacity make ourselves obsolete. Technological miracles but discipline. The technologies
comes online. The maths again: unless transitions don’t wait for ideological exist, the investors are waiting, and the
renewables and storage keep scaling, approval. They happen when cost curves blueprint is drawn. What remains is to
today’s silence is temporary. and performance cross. South Africa’s act at the speed of reason.
crossing point is already behind us.” “Let’s make the rationally objective
Portfolio, not purity decision that gives us the lowest-cost
“To be clear,” says De Ruyter, “I’m not A lesson in rational optimism electricity going forward,” De Ruyter
speaking out against coal or nuclear. “Electricity isn’t magic; it’s pretty concludes.
Power stability isn’t a one-trick pony. straightforward if you look at the big Borrowed light bought us time.
Let’s run the numbers, look at the data, picture,” says De Ruyter What we do with that time will decide
and as quickly as possible migrate to the Perhaps that’s the simplest whether the next silence feels like relief
portfolio that ticks all the objectives.” energy policy ever written. Logically, – or the edge of another collapse.
“We should aim for diversity, resilience
and cost discipline – not doctrine. Coal BUILD-TIME REALITY CHECK
retains a limited legacy role; nuclear Technology Typical build time Financing outlook Cost trend
may return in small doses once finances
allow, but renewables and storage form Solar PV 2 years Strong private  Rapidly falling
the spine of any credible future mix.” (utility scale) appetite
Wind power 3 years High interest, steady  Falling
Nuclear new build 15 years (if lucky) Financing difficult  High capex
New coal 10–12 years Low / insurers  Rising
(minimum) reluctant

The Villager • January/February 2026 • 17