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VIEWS AND OPINION

Nukes not cheap even if you can build one

France and the UK are struggling with their nuclear plants, old and new

By Fereidoon Sioshansi, Menlo Energy
Economics

ith the war in Ukraine, high fossil
fuel prices and growing concerns
Wabout climate change, nuclear
power seems like a big winner. But with the
exception of a few centrally planned economies,
not many are being built or even contemplated
in the West. Why is that? For an answer, one
can look at the UK and France, two countries
with a long history of building and operating
nuclear power plants.
In the former case, the only news from
the two reactors expected at Hinkley Point C
is continued rising cost estimates every time
the figures are updated. In the latter case,
Électricité de France (EDF) is facing difficulties
maintaining its existing fleet while the single
new reactor under construction in Normandy is
way behind schedule and way, way above cost.
In May 2022, EDF, which is building Hinkley
Point C, updated the cost and schedule for the
two Hinkley Point C reactors. It said the start
of electricity generation for Unit 1, currently
targeted for June 2027, is at risk of further serve its own needs possibly as early as this winter, forcing it to import power – no
delays – assuming no additional effects of the one can be sure where from.
war in Ukraine. Project completion costs are Moreover, the state owned EDF is already heavily in debt to the tune of €43
now estimated in the range of £25 to 26 billion billion euros (R785 billion) making it more difficult to fix the problems it faces. The
(R500 to R520 billion) but EDF expects that NYT says that the “… troubles have ballooned so quickly that President Emmanuel
there will be no impact for UK consumers under Macron’s government has hinted that EDF may need to be nationalised.”
terms of the Contract for Difference agreed with With 56 reactors, France’s atomic fleet is ageing, which means that its
the UK government. The next major milestone problems are many and are likely to grow. During the recent elections and in the
is the lifting of the dome on Unit 1, forecast for midst of the Ukrainian crisis, Macron announced a €51.7 billion (R945 billion)
the second quarter of 2023. blueprint to rebuild France’s nuclear fleet, with EDF building the first of up to 14
As recently reported in The New York Times, next-generation pressurised water reactors (PWRs) by 2035. That vision now seems
roughly half of France’s atomic fleet, the largest like a mirage if EDF cannot even maintain and safely operate the existing fleet.
in Europe and second only to the US, has been What about small modular reactors (SMRs)? They can be prefabricated and
taken offline due to unexpected problems assembled on site like Lego sets. There is talk of putting one at major substations
including corrosion and performance issues at to relieve local congestion. Yet we are unaware of any commercially viable SMRs in
the ageing reactors. production or a waiting list for orders. Until that happens, your guess is as good as
France’s nuclear output is currently at its mine.
lowest level in nearly 30 years just when more is
needed with the crisis in Ukraine, which means Acknowledgement
that France cannot export much to Britain, Italy This article was first published in the July 2022 edition of EEnergy Informer and is
or other European countries. In fact, according republished here with permission.
to the The New York Times, France faces the
prospect of not having sufficient supplies to Send your comments to rogerl@nowmedia.co.za

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